We have been watching GPU costs fall for the reason that begin of the 12 months, however the previous few weeks counsel issues might get a lot worse — for the graphics card producers and GPU distributors, that’s — within the close to future.
GPU costs dropped 15% in Could, and we have seen related 10–15% drops every month for the previous a number of months. We noticed the finest graphics playing cards come again into inventory (at retail) as GPU mining profitability has plummeted — and that was earlier than Bitcoin and Ethereum crashed once more, dropping Bitcoin from round $30,000 to the low $20,000s and Ethereum from round $1,900 to about $1,100. Up to now week, Bitcoin’s worth dropped over 30%, whereas Ethereum plunged by greater than 40%.
This has occurred earlier than — again in 2018, when it resulted in a large oversupply of many GPU traces. AMD’s Polaris GPUs, such because the RX 570 and RX 580, went from being wildly-popular mining GPUs to being playing cards you could possibly choose up for a music. The low-end RX 560 value virtually as a lot because the RX 570 4GB, despite the fact that the latter supplied greater than twice the efficiency. And it isn’t simply retail costs that may threaten gross sales — used GPUs will begin to flood the market as individuals abandon cryptocurrency mining.
We’re already beginning to see a few of these results. Bear in mind only a few months in the past, when the RTX 3080 could not be discovered for underneath $1,000? It is now going for lower than $650 on eBay, and we have seen listings promoting teams of six RTX 3080s for as little as $2,500 — $418 every! With the present profitability of RTX 3080 mining hovering round $0.85 per day (after energy prices), even hardcore miners are able to throw within the towel and see what remaining worth they will get out of their playing cards. Wannabe miners would nonetheless be taking a look at a couple of 12 months and a half to interrupt even, assuming issues do not get proceed getting worse.
This would possibly sound like doom and gloom, but it surely’s truly nice information for anybody trying to improve to a brand new graphics card! Not that we’re suggesting you run out and purchase a used graphics card off eBay, however we anticipate almost each present technology graphics card will quickly be discovered for less-than-retail costs — perhaps far much less. This is a take a look at the most recent GPU costs in comparison with simply two weeks in the past. (We’ll break issues down into retail and eBay tables, to make issues extra comprehensible.)
Retail costs aren’t falling fairly as quick because the used market on eBay (see beneath), however we’re nonetheless monitoring a 2% drop up to now two weeks, which is partially offset by the 9% enhance in value on the RTX 3080 12GB. It appears others could have observed that the $800 deal was maybe a bit too good, at the very least for the present day — however do not be shocked if that card drops effectively beneath that value within the coming months.
As we have talked about earlier than, essentially the most fascinating Nvidia GPUs — the RTX 3080, 3070, 3060 Ti, 3060, and 3050 — are nonetheless promoting for over MSRP. Playing cards with greater really helpful costs, nonetheless, have not been capable of preserve these ranges, and the RTX 3090 Ti and RTX 3080 Ti are each “offers” the place you not should pay MSRP.
AMD’s GPUs nonetheless provide higher total worth, should you evaluate efficiency utilizing our GPU benchmarks hierarchy. You do quit some ray tracing efficiency and DLSS assist, however should you’re taking a look at apples-to-apples comparisons the RX 6900 XT matches up effectively in opposition to the RTX 3080 Ti and prices considerably much less. The identical goes for the RX 6600 XT and the RTX 3060. Practically each AMD GPU now sells for lower than MSRP, aside from the RX 6800 XT and RX 6800.
Flipping over to the secondhand market on eBay: Common eBay bought costs have dropped 10% in comparison with two weeks in the past. It is a massive drop, and it is partially offset by greater costs on the RX 6750 XT and RX 6400 — each of which have extremely low eBay volumes and might due to this fact be ignored. Really, all of AMD’s newcomer GPUs are mainly unavailable on eBay — if we ignore these, eBay’s bought itemizing costs truly dropped by 12%.
The Purchase it Now column is much more fascinating, because it reveals the bottom value we have been capable of finding (after we excluded non-functional {hardware} and pretend/unhealthy listings with a Purchase it Now choice). Practically each graphics card has a Purchase it Now value that is lower than the typical bought itemizing value up to now week — and Purchase it Now means there isn’t any must cope with the trouble of bidding on an public sale. You are in all probability nonetheless getting a warmed-over mining card that will or could not run effectively (except it is a comparatively new mannequin, such because the RTX 3090 Ti), however these playing cards will get increasingly more engaging as costs proceed to drop.
The actual query — and the one we do not have a solution for — is how a lot stock AMD, Nvidia, and their companions have available proper now.
With the subsequent technology (presumably) RTX 40-series and RX 7000-series graphics playing cards slated to launch later this 12 months (in all probability throughout the subsequent 4 months), promoting off any remaining Ampere and RDNA 2 GPUs earlier than the brand new stuff arrives will likely be troublesome even on the present costs. We might see graphics card costs drop a lot decrease if it seems that corporations overestimated inventory wants.
These traits aren’t restricted to eBay and US pricing. A cursory look on the European and Asian markets reveals continued value cuts. It is also fascinating that Intel has mainly restricted the preliminary launch of its Arc GPUs — each cellular and desktop — to China. We’re unsure who’s shopping for these laptops or desktops, however launching a modestly-performing GPU proper now’s going to be an uphill battle, particularly when drivers doubtless nonetheless aren’t as much as snuff. We won’t wait to get our palms on an Intel Arc A380 to see the way it performs.
We have been ready for this to occur for almost two years. We knew graphics playing cards could not preserve their insane costs, however profiteering by GPU makers, coupled with cryptocurrency mining, stored issues going for longer than anticipated.
However provide has improved so much, and the lengthy, darkish evening is lastly coming to an finish. The query now’s whether or not the subsequent technology of GPUs can provide a compelling sufficient value and efficiency story to persuade individuals to consider upgrades.
Contemplating the repeated bulletins about greater TSMC prices over the previous 12 months, AMD, Intel, and Nvidia would possibly find yourself being pressured to chop deeply into their GPU revenue margins. Do not feel too unhealthy for them, although — they need to have some additional money from the final two years.
