Do not Purchase a Graphics Card for Greater than $500 Proper Now

When you’re seeking to improve your PC with a brand new, high-end graphics card that prices greater than $500, hit the pause button. Whereas GPU costs proceed to drop and a few playing cards would possibly look notably tempting — just like the RTX 3090 Ti for $920 beneath its obscene $1,999 (opens in new tab) launch MSRP — the greatest graphics playing cards are about to get some critical competitors. That is very true for the playing cards on the prime of our GPU benchmarks hierarchy. So in the event you’re eying that RX 6950 XT for ‘solely’ $934 (opens in new tab), I counsel you wait. 

Right this moment’s prime playing cards — something that is above an RTX 3070 or, fairly presumably, an RTX 3070 itself — are more likely to be displaced by sooner fashions throughout the subsequent two or three months. So, in the event you purchase them now, chances are you’ll kick your self in November when you may get a greater card for a similar worth or the identical, now-last-gen card at a reduced worth. Playing cards that presently value $500 or much less, just like the RTX 3060 Ti or beneath and RX 6700 XT or beneath, are much less probably to get replaced within the close to future. Within the sub-$250 area, it is onerous to beat the worth you get proper now from Radeon RX 6600 (opens in new tab) and RTX 2060 (opens in new tab), the latter of which matches for a mere $229 on Amazon (opens in new tab).

When you want three good causes to attend on upgrading your graphics card, I’ve acquired them: Nvidia RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace GPUs, AMD RX 7000-series RDNA 3 GPUs, and Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs. That final one most likely will not land anyplace close to the highest of the efficiency ladder, but when Intel desires to realize some market share the A770, A750, and A580 may very well be priced very aggressively. That would trigger AMD and Nvidia to reply with worth cuts to the midrange and price range GPUs. In different phrases, every thing is in a state of flux, from price range to midrange to high-end and excessive GPUs.

Which is not to say no person can buy a brand new graphics card. When you’re in dire want, or in the event you’re constructing your first PC and easily cannot wait any longer, it is okay to however a good price range or midrange providing. There’s all the time new stuff coming down the pipeline, and probably ready till 2023 might be too lengthy for some individuals. There’s much less chance of main pricing adjustments within the price range to midrange sector, so in the event you want a brand new GPU, that is the place I might look.

Let’s shortly recap what’s taking place on the prime of the GPU efficiency stack.

Everybody expects Nvidia to disclose the RTX 4090 on the very least on September 20 on the GPU Expertise Convention. Nvidia has stated it should discuss concerning the subsequent GeForce structure, and why talk about the structure with out launching at the very least one graphics card? Nvidia will most likely present particulars on the RTX 4080 as properly, and possibly even a Titan card.

Rumblings about efficiency point out we may very well be way over a 50% enchancment over the present quickest GPUs. Costs would possibly set new data as properly — in a foul method — however in the event you’re contemplating upgrading to a brand new Nvidia GPU that prices greater than $500, I might positively wait and see what occurs. And in the event you’re eying an RTX 3090 Ti, you would possibly as properly wait a month after which go entire hog and swipe your bank card for the RTX 4090, assuming it truly is as much as 75% sooner. Or be wise and choose up the RTX 4080.

In brief, I absolutely anticipate RTX 4090 playing cards to go on sale by October on the newest. There is a good probability RTX 4080 will observe inside just a few weeks, if it would not launch concurrently. That may put stress on Nvidia and its companions to filter out every thing from the 3080 and up, which in flip ought to influence costs on the 3070 and 3060 collection as properly.

AMD might not be too far behind with its RDNA 3 GPUs. It demonstrated an unnamed however presumably high-end card on the unveiling of the complete Ryzen 7000 CPU lineup. Let the mud settle from the CPU launch, which can occur on September 27, and AMD is perhaps able to shift over to new GPU launches by subsequent month, actually earlier than the tip of the 12 months.

As with Nvidia, I anticipate AMD to begin with its quickest GPU, Navi 31. The highest mannequin ought to have at the very least 50% extra reminiscence bandwidth and capability in comparison with the RX 6950 XT, and if the present rumors are correct, it should greater than double the theoretical compute efficiency. Will AMD steal a few of Nvidia’s thunder and ship a GPU that may beat the RTX 4090? It is potential, although we’ll have to attend and see. The unhealthy information is that if AMD truly does ship superior efficiency, it should probably be equally costly.

However once more, you needn’t splurge on the top-shelf mannequin. AMD ought to have a barely trimmed down RX 7800 XT launching concurrently or shortly after the RX 7900 XT. The potential for large adjustments in worth to efficiency do not cease there, both. RX 6700 XT might be about as excessive as I might go on a GPU buy, because the newcomers will inevitably have an effect on costs elsewhere, although the additional down the stack you go, the much less probably issues are to vary a lot within the subsequent month or two.

The price range to midrange sector can be the place Intel’s larger spec Arc graphics playing cards come into the image. Intel has demonstrated — utilizing its personal benchmarks, so apply a dose of skepticism — aggressive efficiency from each the Arc A770 and Arc A750. Based mostly on the just lately revealed Arc specs, even the mainstream Arc A580 would possibly provide some first rate competitors within the sub-$250 market.

Intel is aware of the place issues stand, and it is aware of it has an uphill battle for market share. Earlier experiences of flaky drivers on the Arc A380 aren’t going to instill confidence, which suggests even when Intel’s Arc A770 can match or beat the RTX 3070, it will not be capable of cost RTX 3070 costs.

I believe Intel’s A770 will go after the RTX 3060 Ti as an alternative, the A750 will goal the RTX 3060, and A580 will tackle the RTX 3050. Presumably much more stunning is that Intel would possibly even win every of these match ups. At which level Nvidia may simply cut back costs, which once more factors again to the advice to attend a bit.

I’ve put all the rumored specs collectively — although the A770 would not have rumored specs anymore, apart from the value. I am fairly sure on the utmost configuration for Nvidia’s AD102 GPU and Nvidia’s Navi 31, however how lots of the purposeful will truly be enabled, and what clock speeds will the chips run at? These are mainly unknown, at the very least to me, although there have been a great deal of rumors — many much less dependable than others. I’ve additionally plugged in “educated guess” pricing, however do not forget that worth is the best factor to vary on the final minute.

Arguably a very powerful specs would be the GPU shader counts and theoretical compute. Expertise signifies that such information finally ends up being a comparability between apples and oranges as a result of variations between the assorted architectures, however assuming AMD and Nvidia each enhance, and relying on closing clock speeds, we may very well be in for a really attention-grabbing showdown within the subsequent month or two.

For the present technology GPUs, Nvidia has a whopping 40 teraflops of theoretical compute on the RTX 3090 Ti, whereas the RX 6950 XT solely has 23.7 teraflops. The potential specs for RTX 4090 put it at round 65 teraflops — a 60% enhance — whereas the RX 7900 XT may go as excessive as 59 teraflops or extra — greater than double the present halo AMD GPU. Intel lands far beneath these two, with the A770 already behind the present halo elements, however once more that is to be anticipated since it will likely be going after the upper quantity mainstream market.

Maybe extra vital than the upcoming AMD and Nvidia heavyweights would be the penultimate GPUs. RTX 4090 and RX 7900 XT will virtually actually carry premium pricing to new ranges, however what about RTX 4080 and RX 7800 XT? Previous expertise suggests stepping down one notch would possibly cut back potential efficiency by 10–15%, whereas additionally slicing the value practically in half. $999 for an RTX 4080 that is 30% sooner than the present RTX 3090 Ti? Yeah, that is one chance. The identical goes for RX 7800 XT versus the RX 7900 XT.

Once more, I do not know for certain the place any of those upcoming playing cards will truly land on worth or efficiency, and even specs. That is why I run all of the benchmarks when the GPUs truly launch. About the one factor I am assured in stating is that every one the brand new GPUs will instantly promote out. What I hope is that offer will catch as much as demand way more shortly than up to now two years. Miners will not be propping up unreasonable costs, so if the celebs align we may see first rate availability and pricing earlier than the tip of the 12 months.

And even when the costs on the next-generation GPUs find yourself being greater than you are prepared to spend, the reported glut of present technology graphics playing cards build up in warehouses ought to inevitably result in decrease costs on current playing cards. Worst-case, you wait a month or two and find yourself saving a couple of bucks (except one other “good storm” hits). Finest-case, you find yourself with 50% or extra efficiency with out spending something additional.

However hey, I have been improper earlier than, although admittedly not many individuals correctly predicted the ramifications of the entire pandemic, or the 2020 cryptocurrency increase inflicting chaos within the GPU market. Sadly, even with out these, scalpers would possibly spoil the upcoming launch events and vacation buying season. Persistence remains to be a advantage.

If you really want one thing proper now, I might look to playing cards priced beneath $500, and maybe nearer to $250. Take a gander on the Radeon RX 6600 (opens in new tab) and RTX 2060 (opens in new tab), each of that are glorious values. You’ll be able to transfer as much as one thing sooner as soon as issues cool down. If these aren’t quick sufficient, AMD’s RX 6700 XT (opens in new tab) and RX 6650 XT (opens in new tab) are  additionally good values, and the 12GB of VRAM on the 6700 XT and RTX 3060 (opens in new tab) additionally warrant consideration.

I would not go a lot larger on a GPU buy proper earlier than new {hardware} is ready to reach. There’s often a trickle down impact on pricing, and Nvidia’s playing cards within the $300–$600 vary are nonetheless promoting above their official MSRPs, which suggests they positively have room to return down one other $50–$100.